Lost Bitcoin Statistics
The Big Number
Blockchain analysis firm Chainalysis estimates that between 2.78 million and 3.79 million Bitcoin are effectively lost forever. At current prices, this represents tens of billions of pounds in permanently inaccessible wealth.
The range reflects the difficulty of distinguishing between truly lost Bitcoin and coins held by long-term holders who simply have not moved them. A wallet dormant since 2010 is almost certainly lost. A wallet dormant since 2021 might just belong to someone with conviction. The true figure lies somewhere in between.
To put these numbers in context: approximately 19.5 million Bitcoin have been mined to date (out of a maximum 21 million). If 3.7 million are lost, that means roughly 19% of all Bitcoin ever created is permanently gone.
Losses by Era
Bitcoin losses are not evenly distributed across time. The overwhelming majority occurred in the earliest years, when Bitcoin had little or no monetary value and participants treated it casually.
The Satoshi Era (2009)
Satoshi Nakamoto mined approximately 1.1 million BTC in the first year of the network. None of these coins have ever moved. They represent the single largest concentration of lost (or at least dormant) Bitcoin. Whether Satoshi is alive, dead, or has deliberately destroyed the keys remains unknown.
Early Mining (2009-2011)
Beyond Satoshi, early miners accumulated millions of Bitcoin with standard computers. Most treated it as a hobby or experiment. When they lost interest, upgraded their hardware, or formatted their drives, the wallet.dat files — and the coins inside — were destroyed.
Estimated losses from this era: 1.0-1.5 million BTC.
The Growth Period (2012-2014)
As Bitcoin gained value, losses shifted from casual neglect to more dramatic events. The Mt. Gox collapse in 2014 accounted for approximately 650,000 BTC in net losses (after partial recovery). Individual losses from forgotten passwords, hardware failures, and mismanaged security also accumulated.
Estimated losses from this era: 800,000-1.2 million BTC.
The Mainstream Era (2015-Present)
Improved wallet software, hardware wallets, and better education have reduced the rate of new losses. But they have not eliminated it. Individual losses still occur from forgotten passwords, phishing attacks, exchange hacks, and the death of holders without succession plans.
Estimated ongoing losses: 10,000-50,000 BTC per year.
Losses by Cause
Forgotten or Lost Keys
The single largest category. This includes:
- Wallet.dat files deleted or overwritten
- Seed phrases written down and lost
- Hardware wallets damaged or discarded
- Passwords forgotten without recovery options
Estimated total: 2.0-3.0 million BTC.
Exchange Hacks and Failures
Major exchange incidents have permanently removed significant quantities of Bitcoin from circulation:
- Mt. Gox (2014): ~650,000 BTC net loss
- Bitfinex (2016): 119,756 BTC stolen (partially recovered in 2022)
- QuadrigaCX (2019): ~26,000 BTC inaccessible after CEO death
- Numerous smaller exchanges: Aggregate losses in the hundreds of thousands of BTC
Estimated total: 600,000-800,000 BTC.
Deliberate Destruction
A small but notable category. Some Bitcoin has been deliberately sent to “burn addresses” — addresses with no known private key. The most famous is the genesis block coinbase reward of 50 BTC, which is unspendable due to a quirk in Bitcoin’s code.
Others have burned Bitcoin as a political statement, a proof-of-burn mechanism, or simply by sending to an invalid address.
Estimated total: 10,000-50,000 BTC.
Death Without Succession
An increasing concern as the original generation of Bitcoin holders ages. When a holder dies without leaving access to their private keys, the Bitcoin is lost. Unlike the other categories, this cause of loss is accelerating rather than decelerating.
Estimated total: Difficult to quantify, but growing.
The Effective Supply
Bitcoin has a hard cap of 21 million coins. The last Bitcoin will be mined around the year 2140. But the effective circulating supply is significantly smaller than the theoretical maximum.
| Category | Amount |
|---|---|
| Total Bitcoin mined to date | ~19.5 million |
| Estimated permanently lost | 2.78-3.79 million |
| Effective circulating supply | ~15.7-16.7 million |
| Percentage of supply that is lost | ~17-20% |
| Remaining to be mined | ~1.5 million |
The effective supply will continue to shrink over time. New Bitcoin is mined at a decreasing rate (halving approximately every four years), while losses continue to occur at a relatively steady pace. Eventually, the rate of loss will exceed the rate of new supply.
What This Means for Holders
Scarcity
Lost Bitcoin increases the scarcity of the remaining supply. With fewer coins available to buy and sell, each remaining Bitcoin is proportionally rarer. This is one of the factors underpinning Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition.
Unlike fiat currencies, which can be printed indefinitely, Bitcoin’s supply is not only capped but actively shrinking. This makes it deflationary by nature — an unusual property for any form of money.
Concentration
Lost Bitcoin is disproportionately concentrated in early-era wallets. This means that the distribution of accessible Bitcoin is different from the distribution of all Bitcoin. The effective ownership is more concentrated among active participants than the raw blockchain data suggests.
Irreversibility
Every lost Bitcoin is a permanent subtraction. There is no mechanism to recover coins from a lost key, and no authority that can reverse the loss. This is by design — Bitcoin’s immutability is one of its core properties — but it means that losses accumulate irreversibly over time.
UK Context
An estimated 2.3 million UK adults hold cryptocurrency. If even a small percentage of these holders die without adequate succession plans, the losses will be significant.
Assuming an average holding and a low rate of inadequate planning, UK-specific losses could amount to hundreds of millions of pounds over the coming decades. This is wealth that could otherwise be inherited by families, contributed to the economy, or used to support future generations.
The inheritance planning challenge is not theoretical. It is a practical, growing problem that affects real families today.
The Positive Takeaway
Lost Bitcoin is bad news for the individuals who lost it. But for the remaining holders, it has an effect: it makes their Bitcoin more scarce and, in theory, more valuable over time.
The best way to ensure you are on the right side of this equation is straightforward: secure your keys, document your holdings, and plan for inheritance. The graveyard is full of people who thought they had time.
Related Reading
- What Happens to Bitcoin When You Die? — The inheritance problem behind many of these losses.
- Bitcoin Inheritance Planning (UK) — How to ensure your Bitcoin doesn’t become a statistic.
- Satoshi Nakamoto: 1.1M BTC That Never Moved — The single largest dormant holding in Bitcoin history.
- Forgotten Wallets: Millions Lost in Early Wallets — The aggregate data behind the statistics in this guide.
- James Howells: 8,000 BTC in a Welsh Landfill — One of the most well-documented individual losses.